Prolonged

This seems futile at first glance.

The Philippine government has raised the Gaza Crisis Alert Level to 4. That means it is now mandatory for all Filipinos in the enclave to evacuate.

But there is no means for the affected Filipinos to comply. The entirety of the Gaza enclave is fenced in. It has been described as the world’s largest prison.

The Rafa exit in southern Gaza, on the border with Egypt, has been opened. But Filipinos will have to compete with tens of thousands of Palestinians seeking a way to safety.

Relief goods and civilian volunteers arriving through Egypt could not enter Gaza. The roads in the enclave leading to Rafa have been so badly bombed, they have been described as “inoperable.” Everyone seeking a path to safety will have to walk.

Israel instructed the people of northern Gaza to move south of the river that cuts the territory in half. The UN has denounced the instructions as “impossible.” An estimated 1.1 million civilians will have to move to comply with Israeli instructions.

Meanwhile, Israel has been massing troops and armor along its border with Gaza. Some lighting raids have been conducted by Israeli commandos trying to find over a hundred hostages Hamas fighters took back with them.

There is, imaginably, great diplomatic pressure on Israel to delay its expected ground offensive. Diplomats from several countries are frantically trying to find a workable solution to the hostage problem. Senior US officials have been criss-crossing the troubled region to meet with the leaders of Egypt, Jordan and the UAE.

Meanwhile, the US Navy has moved a second carrier strike force close to the Israeli coast. It is unprecedented for the US Navy to concentrate two carrier strike forces in one area. The move is seen as a signal to other nations that might want to jump into the fighting.

Specifically, the US is worried that Iran could send more weapons to the Hezbollah in southern Lebanon – or even fire its own missiles at Israel. The two carrier strike groups could help intercept these hostile missiles.

The Israel Defense Force and the Hezbollah have been engaged in artillery exchanges the past few days – although analysts say the situation has not reached escalation levels. The Hezbollah controls more and better missiles than the Hamas. Estimates range as high as 80,000 missiles – enough to make things very difficult for Israel.

Although Hamas issued a call for other Arab leaders to “show anger” at Israel’s anticipated ground invasion, few have responded with any enthusiasm. This militant movement completely discredited themselves with their brutality and bloodlust.

Still, the situation has great potential for escalation. That will create multifold problems for the rest of the world.

Already, Brent crude has climbed back up to $90 per barrel. It could spike higher on increasing indications of a longer and wider war.

At the moment, there does not seem to be a diplomatic path to ending the war quickly. Israel has vowed to avenge the deaths inflicted by Hamas on the principle of “an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth.” Tel Aviv has announced the complete obliteration of the Hamas as its military objective. Civilians caught in the crossfire will, sadly, be collateral damage.

Israel had performed armed incursions into Gaza several times the past so many years. In all the previous instances, Israeli commandos avoided entering the built up areas of the enclave. Assaulting the built-up areas, with all their narrow alleyways and a honeycomb of bunkers and tunnels, will only favor the Hamas militants.

We saw what happened when our troops assaulted Marawi City to flush out the heavily armed and entrenched Maute group. This led to a high casualty toll on both sides and the devastation of the city.

When Hamas launched its attacks on southern Israel, they must have figured that Tel Aviv would be so aggrieved that it would send its troops to do street fighting. The Hamas would be effectively waiting in ambush in terrain the suits them and negates Israel’s advantage in armor and artillery.

We will see shortly if Israel’s military tacticians have figured out a way to deal Hamas a death blow without having to do house-to-house fighting. However this turns out, the death toll among Palestinians will surely be high.

The appearance of two US Navy carrier assault groups off the coast of Israel seeks to deter both the Hezbollah and their patrons in Tehran. We will see if the message is clearly delivered.

If adventurism takes over in the ranks of the Hezbollah and Iran loses all prudence, this war could spiral very quickly. Oil pricing could shoot through the roof. The map in the Middle East might need to be redrawn.

But if the Hezbollah and Tehran choose the path of prudence, they will lose clout in the region that want to influence. All their saber-rattling about the missiles they have amassed against Israel will appear comical.

Also, if Hamas crumbles too quickly, Tel Aviv could decide to take on the Hezbollah anyway. They have the momentum and global opinion on their side. Already, Israeli jets have disabled the international airport in Aleppo, Syria to prevent Iranian arms shipments.

Unfortunately, we can only watch the war unfold with no means to influence the turn of events. We do not even have the means to rescue our own citizens threatened by the war.