A new imperialist China

The latest incident of confrontation between the Philippines and China was the collision between a Philippine vessel and a Chinese coast guard vessel. The root of this conflict is the claim by China that it owns almost the entire South China Sea.

I have often wondered what has led to the Chinese claim of such ridiculous proportion even by imperialist standards in the world. No country has claimed the whole Black Sea which borders on Russia. The United States, in spite of its imperialist tendency at times, has never claimed the whole of the Gulf of Mexico. The Red Sea has been the site of many confrontations but as far as I know, has never been claimed by a single country. I could go on citing other examples.

This incredible claim, together with border confrontations with other neighboring countries, has led observers like me to conclude that China is building a new Great Wall in its intent to keep everybody out. Under Xi Jinping, it seems that China has gone from crisis to crisis. There was the Covid pandemic which began in Wuhan, China and effectively isolated China. Then when most countries ended the ineffective hard lockdowns in favor of massive vaccination campaign, China launched its “Zero Covid” strategy with severe lockdown of its biggest cities. This inflexibility resulted in a backlash.

In November 2022, anti-government protests broke out in cities like Guangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing. These had not happened on such a scale since the event at Tiananmen Square. Then in early December 2022 when the government abandoned its Zero Covid strategy without vaccinating most of the elderly and stockpiling vaccines, the virus ran rampant through the population. Although the government refused to provide reliable data, some sources believe that the new epidemic resulted in more than one million deaths.

In the early months of this year, there were expectations that Xi would loosen his iron grip over the economy and society, in order to rejuvenate the economy. Instead the opposite happened as Xi instituted a policy that has led to more control over the business sector. This new centralization of the economic sector has resulted in the dismantling of some previously major business groups like Alibaba under Jack Ma.

This reversal of market orientation together with demographic changes, government debt and lower gains in productivity has led to the slowing down of economic growth. In fact, some economists are of the opinion that the country’s economic growth will soon reach its apex and may never overtake that of the United States, as was the common impression a few years ago.

Recent visitors to China have written that the Xi administration seems to be obsessed with tighter controls. Recent changes in technology have allowed the government to conduct interference and control in the daily lives of people as in the use of facial recognition technology. There are definite signs that Xi is introducing controls similar to the Maoist period. There are also indicators that a new ideology based on the “thoughts of Xi Jinping” is being propagated to elevate Xi to the level of Mao Zedong.

It seems that the lessons of the past have not been appreciated by the new rulers. During Mao’s regime, China went through a crisis both political and economic. In order to reassert his control of the nation, Mao went through several revolutionary acts like launching the so-called Cultural Revolution. This led to millions of people dying and the virtual collapse of the economy.  After Mao died, Deng Xiaoping took over and introduced market reforms and relaxed the Communist Party’s grip on society. He and his successor believed that a lack of economic progress was the cause for the crisis in China at that period. They pushed through wide-ranging reforms that transformed China into an economic superpower.

It will also be remembered that during the time of Mao, China behaved like an imperialist power. In many ways, Xi Jinping is apparently following in the footsteps of Mao Zedong. However, even at the height of Maoist power, China never claimed ownership of 90 percent of the South China Sea.

When the current economic crisis in China started, many observers assumed that Xi would be forced to loosen his iron grip over the economy and society. It was also assumed that Xi would adopt a less aggressive foreign policy and try to focus on winning global support for China. It should be remembered that Deng Xiaoping, the architect of China’s economic miracle, always adjusted his approach when he encountered setbacks. That is the reason why most observers felt that surely, Xi and his closest advisers would do the same thing. But none of this happened.

Beijing has continued to adopt a strategy of government intervention in Chinese life. In terms of foreign policy, China has insisted on its continuing strategy of aggressive policies even at the expense of its neighbors.

This has led to conflicts with neighbors like India, Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines.

The Philippines must learn to confront an overly aggressive China. We must realize that this Xi-led China will exploit any sign of weakness.

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