A debacle  

In 1975, although it won the war against the greatest military power on Earth, Vietnam was a devastated country.

Recalls Wikipedia: “The war’s toll was immense. The country’s infrastructure was ravaged by bombing and landmines, and parts of its otherwise lush landscape had been stripped by toxic chemicals like Agent Orange. As many as two million civilians died in the conflict, along with 1.3 million Vietnamese soldiers.”

In 1975, with its economy in ruins, Vietnam had a pittance of per capita income, $83, less than $100.

In 1975, the Philippines was the third richest country among the six major countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The Filipino per capita income was $398, behind No. 1 Singapore, $2,490, and No. 2 Malaysia, $800; slightly ahead of No. 4 Thailand, $364, but far ahead of No. 5 Indonesia, $232 and No. 6 Vietnam, $83.

Today, fortunes have changed. The rankings in 2023 per capita GDP: 1) Singapore $91,000; 2) Malaysia $15,210; 3) Thailand $8,180; 4) Indonesia $5,020; 5) Vietnam $4,480 and No. 6 and last, the Philippines $3,910.

The Philippines, No. 3 in 1975, fell in 2023 to No. 6 (and last among the six major ASEAN members). Vietnam, No. 6 in 1975, rose to No. 5 and Indonesia, No. 5 in 1975, leapt to No. 4.

Between 1975 and 2023, in 48 years, the Vietnamese economy per capita grew 54 times its 1975 value; Singapore 36.5x, Thai 22.8x, Indonesian 21.5x, Malaysia 16.7x and the Philippines just 9.8 times – the slowest growing in nearly half a century.

The Philippines’ five major ASEAN neighbors have been growing at an average of 30 times the value of their 1975 economic output, or three times the growth of the Philippines economy.  Of the six ASEAN major countries, the Philippines has been growing the slowest, at an excruciating one-third the pace of its neighbors.

In basketball terms, the teams of Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam make three goals for every one goal the Philippine team scores.

These are teams that have seen the meanest of privation. Singapore had no water, no toilets, no resources when it was founded in 1965. The tiny island did not even have its present name, its original name being Singapura.

Vietnam was a deeply divided country with barely a functioning government in 1975. Indonesians were only half as literate as the Filipinos. Thailand was trying to form a parliamentary government, scared of the emerging communist power in Vietnam.  Oil-rich Malaysia was struggling with homosexuality.

The Philippines? 1975 was a year of fun, happy times for Filipinos. Manila was hosting the greatest boxing bout of all time, between Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier, for the world heavyweight boxing championship.

Ferdinand Marcos Sr. was consolidating his powers. A referendum affirmed his legitimacy. The bureaucracy had been purged. He was seeking ASEAN unity against rising communism.  And he was preparing to recognize the People’s Republic of China and the Soviet Union, far ahead of the United States. His destiny, it seemed, was greatness.

Then something happened. You, dear readers, know that.

Meanwhile, this is what Digital History says of the impact of the war on the US and Vietnam, today clearly an economic power:

“The Vietnam War had far-reaching consequences for the United States. It led Congress to replace the military draft with an all-volunteer force and the country to reduce the voting age to 18. It also inspired Congress to attack the ‘imperial’ presidency through the War Powers Act, restricting a president’s ability to send American forces into combat without explicit congressional approval. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of Vietnamese refugees have helped restore blighted urban neighborhoods.

“The Vietnam War severely damaged the US economy. Unwilling to raise taxes to pay for the war, President Johnson unleashed a cycle of inflation.

“The war also weakened US military morale and undermined, for a time, the US commitment to internationalism. The public was convinced that the Pentagon had inflated enemy casualty figures, disguising the fact that the country was engaged in a military stalemate. During the 1970s and 1980s, the United States was wary of getting involved anywhere else in the world out of fear of another Vietnam. Since then, the public’s aversion to casualties inspired strict guidelines for the commitment of forces abroad and a heavy reliance on air power to project American military power.

“The war in Vietnam deeply split the Democratic Party. As late as 1964, over 60 percent of those surveyed identified themselves in opinion polls as Democrats. The party had won seven of the previous nine presidential elections. But the prosecution of the war alienated many blue-collar Democrats, many of whom became political independents or Republicans. To be sure, other issues – such as urban riots, affirmative action and inflation – also weakened the Democratic Party. Many former party supporters viewed the party as dominated by its anti-war faction, weak in the area of foreign policy and uncertain about America’s proper role in the world.

“Equally important, the war undermined liberal reform and made many Americans deeply suspicious of government. President Johnson’s Great Society programs competed with the war for scarce resources, and constituencies who might have supported liberal social programs turned against the president as a result of the war. The war also made Americans, especially the baby boomer generation, more cynical and less trusting of government and of authority.”

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Meanwhile, I want to congratulate the Chinese government for the celebration of the 74th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China. His Excellency, Ambassador Huang Xilian, is hosting a reception to mark the milestone, at the Shangri-La at the Fort, Taguig.

Congratulations to my Chinese friends, to Ambassador Huang and his team in Manila.

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