Civilizational

There is reason to fear that the longer Israel’s war against Hamas continues, the greater the possibility of opening up civilizational fissures.

One influential political scientist did warn years ago that international tensions will likely be defined by what he calls “the clash of civilizations.” This prospect was stark after the 9/11 attacks in the US.

In the aftermath of the challenge posed by terror groups, the US embarked on some sort of pacification mission against strongmen in the Middle East and eventually a full-scale invasion of Afghanistan. That strategy did not go very well. The fall of tyrants in Iraq and Libya opened up other lines of division in these societies long subordinated precisely by tyrannical rule.

The US military campaign against the Saddam Hussein regime spawned resistance from Islamist radicals, boosting the influence of Al-Qaeda and then the Islamic State. Radicals wove themselves into the wider democratization struggles, dubbed the “Arab Spring,” and eventually took control of the Syrian resistance to the Assad dictatorship.

Today, Syria and Libya continue to be beset by civil wars defined along tribal and sectarian lines. Parts of Iraq remain under the sway of militias supported by neighboring Iran. The Taliban has since returned to power in Afghanistan, threatening to push this society back to the medieval period.

The mullahs are, of course, firmly entrenched in Iran. Their ability to stay in power depends on cultivating fundamentalist belief systems, suppressing anything that might look like “westernization” and arming radical militias around the region. Among these radical militias are the Hamas in Gaza and the Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

Iran’s main rival for influence in the region, Saudi Arabia, has been alarmed by Tehran’s rising influence. The Saudis are prepared to finally recognize the State of Israel as a means to neutralize Iran’s clout.

The Saudis and the Iranians are locked in a proxy war in Yemen. Jeddah supports the internationally recognized government while Iran arms the Houthi rebels. Over the past few days, Houthi rebels have fired several cruise missiles aimed at Israel.

There are increasing indications that Tehran is encouraging Palestinian militant groups to join the war against the Jewish state. The siege imposed by Israel prevents Tehran from sending support directly to the beleaguered Hamas group in Gaza.

The Hezbollah in southern Lebanon is estimated to be in possession of 150,000 missiles more sophisticated than any produced by Hamas. Although artillery exchanges have been recurring across the Israel-Lebanon border, it seems the Hezbollah is reluctant to fully engage Israel in a war – for the time being. At any rate, the US has stationed a carrier-led battle group nearby to dissuade the Hezbollah from attacking.

Israel has conducted air attacks against several facilities used by Hezbollah, intended primarily to prevent shipment of Iranian arms into the zone. The US, responding to missile attacks on its facilities, bombed facilities in Syria and Iraq used by militant groups supported by Tehran.

For years, Tehran has been building up its nuclear weapons capabilities precisely to obliterate the State of Israel. International sanctions slowed down their progress in this regard. At the moment, analysts believe Iran still has no capacity to engage Israel in a long-distance war fought mainly with cruise missiles. Tel Aviv is believed to be nuclear weapons-capable.

Days after the Oct. 7 Hamas assault on Israeli settlements, Joe Biden planned a whirlwind tour of Middle Eastern capitals to shore up support for Israel. He did visit Tel Aviv, but the rest of the original itinerary had to be cancelled after an explosion near a hospital in Gaza initially blamed on Israel. The Arab leaders Biden was supposed to meet with found it more prudent to cancel his visit.

The evidence subsequently established that the hospital blast, where casualty figures were grossly inflated by the Hamas, was due to a faulty rocket launch by the militants. But the diplomatic toll of misinformation has been taken.

Last Tuesday, a large Israeli bomb was dropped in a refugee camp in Gaza. Hamas claims “scores” of civilians were killed. Tel Aviv claims the attack was aimed at a senior Hamas commander hiding out in tunnels beneath the camp.

Whatever the final casualty toll of this bomb will be, it calls attention to the terrible civilian casualties suffered in the course of Israel’s campaign to eradicate Hamas. The collateral damage is probably unavoidable. Gaza has 2.3 million people cramped in a small space. The Hamas has dug tunnels criss-crossing heavily populated areas. But the rest of the world expects Israel to “minimize” civilian casualties – whatever that means.

As the horrible scenes of death and devastation in Gaza proliferate, global public opinion becomes more deeply divided. Pollsters in the US, for instance, have detected a sharp spike in both anti-Semitism and “Islamophobia” among Americans. Rival demonstrations have become more frequent and more antagonistic.

In the Russian republic of Dagestan, a lynching mob overran the airport on news a flight from Tel Aviv had landed. The mob was looking for Jews – presumably to kill.

No war produces any positive emotions. Israel’s war against Hamas brings centuries of distrust and dislike to the surface. It animates both anti-Semitism and “Islamophobia.” All these are magnified and cynically exploited by governments and political movements for their specific purposes.

The possibility of a region-wide conflict remains on the table. The major players in the region will use the war as an opportunity to gain strategic advantages.